So long as that person is subject to biological constraints like the rest of us, it really doesn’t matter how much he or she weighs. Let’s say we are going to weigh a few thousand people, and at the extreme end of that sample contains the heaviest person in the world. But first, let’s talk about why our modern society, as technologically advanced as it is, is the perfect nesting place for a black-swan event. In his book, he talks about some fundamentals of epistemology that limit our ability to understand Black Swans before they happen. Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a book called “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” to study this very phenomenon and shine light on how vulnerable we are to Black Swans, and how we are only becoming increasingly more vulnerable with each passing day. People used to think that swans could only be white, until they saw a black swan - which reshaped the way people thought about what is out there. A single event or observation that often comes as a surprise with disproportionate consequences, radically changing our outlook about something. That one piece of evidence outweighed the previous 1,000 days, and it's not even a contest.
That one final day completely changed the outlook of the chicken’s life. Perhaps, if it wasn’t so foolish to believe that it was special or unique, maybe it would have at least been spared the feelings of betrayal. Given the 1,000 days worth of evidence, the chicken’s trust in its owner was ironically at its highest level when it was eventually slaughtered. Now imagine how betrayed the chicken must've felt when it was being taken to that terrifying part of the farm. Till, of course, the thousand and first day, when the illusion of safety breaks, and you end up on someone’s dinner plate. Each passing day is additional evidence to say that you will live for the next. You are now convinced your owner loves you more than any of those other chickens and he would never do bad things to you. You remain on high alert for when that fateful day might arrive, but it never does.ĭays go by, and then weeks, months, even years. What if he sends you to the slaughterhouse? You have never been there, but you know very well none of your friends have ever come out of that place. You look around and sometimes wonder why your owner takes such good care of you.
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